‘The EU After the Crisis Will Not Resemble Today’s Europe’

The era of American and European economic dominance over the world will become a thing of the past in less than two decades, predict American intelligence analysts in the report ‘Global Trends 2030,’ according to media reports.

The study published on Monday forecasts that by 2030, Asia will take over global power from North America and Europe in GDP, military spending, and technological investments, report Reuters and EU Observer. By 2030, the share of the dominant economic trio: the USA, Europe, and Japan is expected to fall below half from the current 56 percent.

China is likely to become the world’s largest economy and surpass the United States several years before 2030, while ‘the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia will continue to decline relatively slowly,’ the authors predict. However, according to the study, China and India are not the only Asian giants that will dethrone the global economic trio.

The group of ‘New 11,’ which includes Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam, is expected to exceed the total GDP of today’s 27 EU member states by 2030. The authors predict a bleak future for Europe.

‘The eurozone crisis has exposed tensions and divisions among member states and for the first time in decades has called into question the European future,’ the authors write, predicting that the European Union after the crisis will not resemble today’s Europe.

They present several scenarios. One of them predicts the collapse of the European currency and the Union itself, while an optimistic scenario envisions a ‘federal stimulus that would lead to a renaissance of the EU as a cohesive economic and monetary union that would make the EU stronger.’

However, such a scenario would require more integration, which many member states would be unwilling to accept, they write. Germany is expected to remain the European political leader due to its economic strength, but it faces the threat of an aging population.

The report, prepared by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, further predicts growth in the Muslim population. The number of Muslims is expected to double from 4.1 to 8 percent by 2030.
The global population is expected to increase by about 15 percent to 8.3 billion people from 7.1 billion in 2012.