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Fear Index Rises an Additional 3 Percent

On Wall Street, stock indices slightly fell in quiet trading on Tuesday, as investors monitor negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in Washington regarding the reduction of the budget deficit to avoid the ‘fiscal cliff’.

The Dow Jones index weakened by 13 points, or 0.11 percent, to 12,951 points, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.17 percent to 1,407 points, and the Nasdaq index fell 0.18 percent to 2,996 points.
Trading was very calm yesterday as there was no progress in the negotiations regarding the reduction of the budget deficit, and the automatic reduction of budget expenditures and tax increases still threaten, which could push the U.S. economy into recession next year.
Republicans proposed to reduce the deficit by cutting budget expenditures on a range of social programs and increasing revenue by closing some tax loopholes, while President Barack Obama dismissed the Republicans’ proposals and stated that any eventual agreement must include tax increases for wealthier Americans.

– Even after a series of political statements, investors still do not know whether these are real negotiations or just political posturing – says Bernard Baumohl, director at the Economic Outlook Group. Nevertheless, many investors expect that some sort of, at least temporary, agreement will be reached by the end of the year.

However, this could also include an increase in dividend taxes, so in recent days many companies have announced special dividends or postponed their payment deadlines to circumvent the tax increase for their shareholders while it is still possible. The rise of the VIX index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange in recent days indicates investor caution. Yesterday, this ‘fear index’ strengthened by another 3 percent, showing that investors are increasingly hedging their portfolios against a potential drop in stock prices.

Thin trading volume also indicates that investors are cautious. On Wall Street, Nasdaq, and NYSE MKT, about 5.8 billion shares changed hands yesterday, while the average daily volume this year is around 6.5 billion.

European markets also traded cautiously yesterday. The London FTSE index weakened by 0.04 percent to 5,869 points, while the Paris CAC strengthened by 0.39 percent to 3,580 points. The Frankfurt DAX, on the other hand, remained unchanged at 7,435 points.