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The Decline is Led by Corporate Sector Loans

The credit activity of banks continued to decline in September for the second consecutive month, write RBA analysts. The latest data from the Croatian National Bank (HNB) shows that total loans in the banking system amounted to 284.2 billion kuna at the end of September, which is 2.9 billion kuna less compared to August (1 percent).

The monthly decline in loans was contributed to by a decrease in lending across all sectors. Loans to the corporate sector decreased by 1.5 billion kuna (1.3 percent) to 109.9 billion kuna. Loans to households decreased by 813 million kuna to 126.2 billion kuna, while loans to the government recorded a decline of 441 million kuna to 45.5 billion kuna in September.

The decline in credit activity this year is also confirmed by the comparison of the situation at the end of September with the situation at the end of last year. In the observed period, total loans decreased by 5.2 billion kuna or 1.8 percent. Such movements are the result of a relatively strong decline in lending to the corporate sector (-8.9 billion kuna) and households (-2.5 billion kuna), while loans to the government increased by 6.3 billion kuna. Namely, in accordance with the decision on the restructuring of shipyards, the Ministry of Finance took over part of the loans of the shipyards, which led to a decline in loans to companies and an increase in loans to the central government.

Analysts do not expect an intensification of bank credit activity by the end of the year. Namely, the demand for corporate loans is limited by difficult business conditions and reduced demand. Some stronger lending could come through financing programs via HBOR, but it should be emphasized that there is a problem in finding quality projects for financing, they point out.

The relatively high indebtedness of households and unfavorable trends in the labor market hinder the recovery of this sector. The high uncertainty is also confirmed by the fact that housing loans have recorded annual declines for the third consecutive month (amounting to 58.8 billion kuna).