Investor Focus Remains on Shares of INA and HT

At the Zagreb Stock Exchange, no significant changes are expected at the beginning of the week, so shares of INA and HT will continue to be in the focus of investors, with trading volumes similar to those at the end of last week.

Of the 10 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, 8 expect stagnation of the Crobex today, while 2 expect an increase. The Crobex index rose by 1.6 percent last week, to 2,077 points, while Crobex10 increased by 2.49 percent, to 1,138 points. Both indices are at their highest levels since May. Meanwhile, Crobex is up 3.6 percent since the beginning of the year, and Crobex10 is up 7.9 percent. Regular trading amounted to 332.3 million kuna last week, which is about 470 million less than the week before. As in the previous two weeks, the most traded was INA’s stock, which generated 234.2 million kuna in turnover, accounting for about 70 percent of the total regular turnover on the exchange. Its price rose by 8.4 percent, to 3,067 kuna. „Last week’s rise in Crobex was primarily influenced by the jump in INA’s stock price. Media speculation about the emergence of a third buyer for INA shares, as well as unverified information about the value of the gas business in Syria, prompted speculative players to engage in the game of acquiring INA shares“, says Žaran Perić, investment advisor at the investment company EA Sistem. So far, about 312,500 INA shares have changed hands, or nearly 40 percent of the 800,910 shares covered by MOL’s offer at a price of 2,800 kuna. „The price of INA shares is currently almost 10 percent above what MOL is offering, so it seems that, despite a strong marketing campaign, MOL will have a hard time acquiring the remaining INA shares“, Perić assesses. Last week, the HT stock was also in greater focus for investors, with 42.7 million kuna and a price increase of nearly 5 percent, to 289.13 kuna – the highest level since April 20. „This shows that the most money from the sale of INA shares has flowed into HT shares. Clearly, investors are taking positions in anticipation that the shareholders’ assembly will adopt a decision on dividend payment next year“, adds Perić.

On global stock exchanges, stock prices rose last week, primarily thanks to data indicating a strengthening U.S. economy. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index strengthened by 1 percent, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.7, and the Nasdaq index by 0.9 percent. Stock prices also rose on European exchanges last week. The London FTSE index strengthened by 2.33 percent, while the Frankfurt DAX rose by 1.07, and the Paris CAC by 0.85 percent. Among last week’s events on global exchanges, Perić also highlights the 11.3 percent drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the rise in the price of a barrel of oil to 91 dollars, the highest level in the past two years. „The increase in interest rates in China on Christmas Day could change the positive trend in global capital markets at the beginning of this week. By tightening monetary policy, China is trying to keep inflation under control, but stricter monetary measures could, investors fear, slow down the growth of China’s economy, the second largest in the world“, Perić believes. This week, there are no significant macroeconomic indicators to be released, only the weekly unemployment report in the U.S., which will be published on Thursday, and consumer confidence data, scheduled for Tuesday. „On the domestic stock exchange, however, I do not expect significant changes in the week ahead. Shares of INA and HT will continue to be in the focus of investors, with trading volumes similar to those at the end of last week. I do not expect significant price fluctuations either“, Perić states. Among domestic macroeconomic indicators, the release of key retail sales data is expected on Friday. „However, since the stock exchange operates on a shortened schedule on Friday, this data is unlikely to provoke significant market reactions“, concludes Perić. (H)