In November, industrial production increased by 0.2 percent

Industrial production in Croatia increased by 0.2 percent in November compared to the same month last year, following a sharp decline of 4.4 percent in October, which is in line with expectations.

The Croatian Bureau of Statistics announced today that in November, industrial production, according to seasonally adjusted data, strengthened by 0.7 percent compared to October, and by 0.2 percent compared to November last year. This is in line with expectations. Six macroeconomists who participated in the Hina survey estimated, on average, that industrial production in November increased by 0.2 percent compared to the same month last year.

Their estimates ranged from a decline of 2 to an increase of 1.8 percent. “The positive data, following the sharp decline in production in October, is primarily due to the increase in energy production, due to a somewhat harsher winter, and there is a glimmer of hope in the growth of capital and non-durable goods for broad consumption. However, the further decline in the trend index by 0.1 percent is concerning, indicating that a bottom in production is still being sought. The decline in the intermediate goods sector, the largest group, is also worrying, as it shows our industry’s excessive focus on low value-added products, various semi-finished products, and contract work…”, says Hrvoje Stojić, head of the Economic Research Department at Hypo Alpe Adria Bank.

The largest annual production growth, 5.7 percent, was recorded in the energy sector in November, while the production of non-durable goods for broad consumption strengthened by 3.8 percent, and capital goods by 0.7 percent. On the other hand, the production of durable goods for broad consumption plummeted by 13.4 percent, while the intermediate goods sector recorded a decline of 5.2 percent. “In the industry, a ‘flash’ was recorded during the summer, but in the last two months, we again have a decline or stagnation in production due to weak domestic demand. Data on industrial production indicate that, in my estimation, the gross domestic product in the last quarter could be negative. I expect a decline of about 1.5 percent,” says Stojić. Overall, in the first 11 months of this year, industrial production, according to seasonally adjusted data, fell by 1.6 percent compared to the same period last year. (H)