Anyone Who Does Not Forget Everything Learned in the 20th Century Will Perish

The Future A vast amount of informational garbage circulates the world. Research is funded by interested parties and warns of opposing trends.

written by Drago Munjiza
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Today’s world provides too much information, but it is almost impossible to piece together a complete picture of the near future. Futurists clearly predict what will happen in consumer preferences (mostly of Westerners) in 10-20 years based on today’s trends. And that’s it… Just like environmentalists who warn of a global catastrophe due to global warming and rising sea levels. However, when it comes to global warming, there is no consensus, and some scientists warn of global cooling! In any case, whether warming or cooling occurs, the trends predicted by futurists will not materialize because the analyses were conducted under the assumption that the main parameters in the world order would not change.

Excess Information
It is very challenging to make decisions about the future of individuals/companies/society in today’s time. An excessive amount of information and informational garbage circulates the world, and every attempt to obtain reliable information leads to the discovery that the research was funded by some interested party (which may have distorted the truth), and that there is another study pointing to an opposing trend.  For example, how many articles were written in the 1990s about the demise of small shops and the future dominance of large formats – supermarkets and hypermarkets. Then the Lidl phenomenon occurred, which clearly indicated that the small format is king, so today Carrefour is opening small shops around the world, and Tesco’s strategy for entering the US and competing against Wal-Mart involves small formats…

It is undeniable that the world is (once again) becoming a dangerous place, both for living and for business. If families in the Middle East are willing to send their children to blow themselves up for a higher cause, and this is happening everywhere in the world (imagine who among us Westerners would be willing to do that), then we cannot be sure that our trip to Paris or London will not end tragically and that we will not become collateral victims in the fight for someone’s holy cause. We cannot be sure that our summer vacation will not end in the midst of a devastating storm that sweeps everything in its path… It is necessary to learn to cope with these realizations and the escalation of these events as a trend.

The main trend in Europe – the aging population – will bring both problems and opportunities. Opportunities arise in the form of an increasingly affluent and dominant consumer segment, so those who recognize the needs of this segment of people and their future behavior can establish solid businesses. In any case, today’s old age is not what it was in the last century. Today’s ‘seniors’ take better care of themselves, are more vital, and less ‘worn out’. Some of them are living a second youth (life begins after fifty).

Ability to Adapt
For a system to be maintained, it needs energy, fuel, resources. It is very unclear how many resources are available in this world that can withstand the accelerated growth of India, China, Brazil, and Africa. Even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that oil and gas will run out in the second half of this century or that their extraction will become too expensive. Governments advise a return to natural energy sources, but is that enough and what will it mean for our world and businesses?
How will retail distribution be conducted? Or how will business be conducted in the tourism industry? There may be answers, but at the very least, they are not clearly presented! While reading about this topic, there is no clear perspective on when, how, and by what means/alternatives fossil fuel forms will be replaced! Water is another topic…
The strengthening of new world powers – China, India, Brazil, Russia – brings changes to the world order. With their new economic power, they bring cultural peculiarities to the global stage. However, how will these countries behave (and we know that every success brings a dose of arrogance) when they become truly powerful, both informally and formally? And how will the current world policeman – the USA – accept this? Can old and new economic powers agree calmly and rationally on the division of influence as well as world resources? Can some countries peacefully accept that they will have to drop out of the first league of the most influential countries simply because they are too small? In such an almost chaotic web of relations, making decisions about investing in the future is not easy. Nor is it easy to predict future needs. But one thing is clear – countries and individuals who remain in the past, in the 20th century, and try to interpret the future world through the relationships of that era, while solving problems with inappropriate tools, will face exceptional problems. The ability to adapt for the survival of species/societies/companies/individuals has always been a dominant and necessary trait.