Due to very low trading volumes and a gloomy domestic economic reality, last week the Crobex index slid down on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, but managed to stay above 1,900 points, while next week, if the positive sentiment on global markets continues, it could change direction.
After two positive weeks, the Crobex index weakened by 0.95 percent last week, shortened due to the Independence Day holiday, to 1,903 points, and Crobex10 by 1.12 percent, to 1,002 points. In four trading days, regular trading amounted to only 36 million kuna, which is almost 80 million kuna less than the previous week. “In the past week, shortened due to the holiday, trading on the domestic market was exceptionally low, but it is positive that, despite this, Crobex manages to stay above the psychologically important threshold of 1,900 points. There are currently very few active investors, but they were influenced by the positive sentiment on global stock exchanges,” says Dalibor Balgač, an analyst in the Economic Research Department of Hypo Alpe Adria Bank. The growth of Crobex is limited precisely by the weak activity of investors, as well as the domestic economic reality, notes Balgač. “The comparison of stock indices in the countries of the former Yugoslavia with those in Central and Eastern European countries indicates that this region records significantly poorer performance, which is directly related to the economic situation. For now, it seems that Croatia, like the countries of the former Yugoslavia, will catch the last train out of recession,” assesses Balgač.
According to the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Croatian economy will record a decline of 1.5 percent this year, after which a growth of 1.6 percent is expected next year. In the spring forecasts published in April, the IMF predicted a growth of Croatian GDP of 0.2 percent for this year, and an acceleration of growth to 2.5 percent next year. Last week on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, the highest turnover, exceeding 10 million kuna, was achieved by the HT stock, which decreased by 1.1 percent to 270.99 kuna. The Atlantic Group stock was also in greater focus for investors, with nearly 4 million kuna traded, and its price rose by 1.23 percent to 819.95 kuna. On global stock exchanges, last week stock prices rose, as the unexpected easing of monetary policy in Japan sparked hopes that other central banks, primarily the US Fed, would introduce additional measures to stimulate economic growth. In support of expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy in November, there are also poor indicators from the US labor market. In September, 95,000 Americans lost their jobs, while it was expected that the number of employed would remain unchanged.
