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The Japanese Push the Dollar Above 85 Yen

The intervention of the Japanese central bank in the currency markets prompted a strengthening of the dollar against the yen last week, but the dollar weakened against higher-yielding currencies, such as the euro, as investor risk appetite increased.

The dollar exchange rate against the Japanese currency rose by 1.88 percent last week, to 85.74 yen. However, the American currency weakened against the European one, causing the euro price to jump by 2.61 percent, to 1.3042 dollars. The euro also strengthened against the Japanese currency, by 4.98 percent, reaching an exchange rate of 112.02 yen.

Although the American currency strengthened against the Japanese, the dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against six major world currencies, fell by 2.43 percent last week, to 80.86 points, the lowest level in five weeks.

Last week, the focus of investors was on the dollar and yen, as after weeks of threats, the Japanese monetary authorities finally intervened in the market. Concerned about the damage the strengthening yen was causing to Japanese exporters, the Bank of Japan intervened on Wednesday by selling yen for the first time in six years when the dollar exchange rate fell to 82.87 yen, the lowest level in 15 years. In just one hour, the dollar price jumped to 84.80 yen, and by the end of the week, it further increased.

“The Japanese authorities have clearly indicated that they do not want the dollar exchange rate to fall below 80 yen. They intervened at around 83 yen per dollar, and I expect they will try to push it above 85 yen. In the medium term, the authorities will continue with policies to stimulate economic growth,” says Simon Wong, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.

While it strengthened against the Japanese currency, the dollar weakened against the euro and other higher-yielding currencies, as relief related to new banking regulations increased investor appetite for assets considered riskier.

Central bank governors and financial regulators from 27 countries agreed on new, stricter banking regulations, called Basel III, at a meeting in Basel on Sunday, which are expected to enhance banks’ resilience to crises. Financial institutions were given more time to adjust than expected, which prompted a positive market reaction.

“Increased risk appetite puts pressure on the dollar while the euro and higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, are holding up much better,” assesses strategist Niels Christensen from Nordea Bank. As a result, the euro exchange rate reached 1.3159 dollars on Friday, the highest level in five weeks. However, by the end of the day, it slipped below the 1.31 dollar level.

“The American currency is affected by speculation about possible additional quantitative easing of monetary policy, and the Japanese central bank, the Bank of Japan, does not completely rule out the possibility of new intervention. This strengthening of global liquidity supports riskier currencies,” says currency strategist Ian Stannard from BNP Paribas. (H)