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Stagnation on the ZSE Due to the Holiday Season

Due to the holiday season, stagnation of the Crobex and low trading volume is expected on the Zagreb Stock Exchange today, with only the most liquid issues likely to be in focus for investors. Of the 8 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, 6 expect the Crobex to continue stagnating today, while 2 expect growth.

The Crobex index rose by 0.7 percent yesterday, to 1,869 points, while Crobex10 increased by 1 percent, to 998 points. However, the regular turnover in shares amounted to only 6.6 million kuna, što je 3 milijuna manje nego u petak. "As we can see from the number of transactions and low turnover in the domestic market, summer lethargy is in full swing. The liquidity that speculators brought to the stock exchange in July has been partially used by larger investors, whether institutional or private, to liquidate their positions, so the Crobex has not managed to follow the positive trend we are witnessing on global stock exchanges. I do not expect significant movements in the Crobex today, but I hope for greater liquidity," emphasizes Ivan Bašić, portfolio manager at the investment company Trcin vrijednosnice.

Yesterday, a turnover of 2.4 million kuna was achieved only with HT shares, which slightly strengthened by 0.37 percent to 259.8 kuna."Today, I expect stagnation of the Crobex and continued trading at low volumes due to the holiday season. The focus of investors will be on the most liquid and possibly those issues for which important news will be announced today," says Nada Harambašić, chief financial analyst at Raiffeisen Consulting.

On global stock exchanges, after yesterday’s strong surge, stock prices could stagnate today, adds Harambašić. Optimism on global stock exchanges yesterday was driven by the purchasing managers’ indices for the industrial sector in the US and the Eurozone, which indicated further expansion of activities, as well as better-than-expected business results from banks HSBC and BNP Paribas. Stock prices on Wall Street reached their highest levels in the last 10 weeks on Monday, with the S&P 500 breaking a key technical level – the 200-day moving average. On European exchanges, indices reached their highest levels in the last three months.

On Asian exchanges, stock prices today reached their highest levels in approximately the last three months. However, this morning, trading on European exchanges started mixed."New guidelines are expected today from the release of numerous US indicators regarding personal income and spending of Americans, the ABC consumer confidence index, orders to the US industry, and sales of existing homes. However, since their release is expected late in the afternoon, they will not impact today’s trading on European and domestic markets," concludes Harambašić.  (H)