Bypass Generation

I was unable to recognize what kind of brooch the Prime Minister was wearing in Opatija while sitting next to Governor Rohatinski. A hastily formed ‘expert’ group of journalists and photographers concluded that it resembled something like a braid, a symbol of unification, intertwining, cooperation, Croatian yin and yang… as a message to the governor, and then to us. This time, the brooch missed the mark.

The governor was not swayed by the symbolism of the jewelry. He strictly adhered to the least symbolic numbers that stripped away all protective layers of reality. If anyone remained cloaked in any of those layers. The only conclusion that could be drawn after listening to both speeches was merely a repetition of John Gray’s conclusion: men are from Mars, women are from Venus. This would somehow be the mildest description of the worlds in which monetary and fiscal authorities live. One has its feet firmly on the ground, the other in the clouds. No need to guess which walks by what. In case the brooch fails (as it did), the Prime Minister was backed by budget guardian Šuker. His arrival was a challenge equivalent to solving the most complicated riddle.

Namely, according to the originally arranged scenario, the minister was also supposed to be at the podium. In the cleared space, in a duel with the governor. It seems he has less and less capacity for that. The kind that is measured by knowledge and accomplishments. So, since he has already given up on arguing against the governor (because there are no arguments), why then did he strengthen the Prime Minister’s entourage with his company? This riddle was not solved by the expert journalistic group. Among other things, because the governor frightened us again with his pessimism. And the Prime Minister with her optimism. In the briefest variant, I will just randomly list that pessimism and optimism. I willingly leave the conclusion to you.

Pessimism in numbers:
• refinancing the state weighed 14.2 billion kuna last year (4.3% of GDP)
• the budget deficit increased from 2.7% to 5.2%
• the growth of loans to the state amounted to 6.4 billion kuna while loans to other sectors decreased by 1.5 billion kuna
• loans to the state and state-owned enterprises consumed 81% of the total loan growth (both domestic and foreign)
• the refinancing needs of the consolidated general government this year amount to about 40 billion kuna or 12% of GDP + potential obligations based on shipbuilding guarantees (another about 12.5 billion kuna)
• foreign debt this year exceeds 100% of GDP
• just for paying interest on foreign debt, 3% of GDP is spent
• the start date of difficulties for companies seeking loans from HBOR (July 1, 2008) is incorrect, as until then, importing companies and those creating demand bubbles were growing
• 20% of HBOR loans are intended for paying tax debts to the state and refinancing existing loans, which dilutes financial assistance
• the HNB sees no sense in further lowering the mandatory reserve rate and releasing new liquidity, as the fiscal authority (and society as a whole) operates as if there is no crisis

Descriptive optimism:
• two budget revisions during the Prime Minister’s term
• expenditures reduced by 7 billion kuna, savings in state-owned enterprises 1.5 billion
• model C, assistance for the most vulnerable companies, is just about to be presented
• she promised strict control of obligations and receivables of state companies
• sees the perspective of exiting the crisis

As is usually the case during various conferences, journalists and analysts quickly grabbed at unraveling the past and present to the minutest details in order to discover who, when, and where exactly made a mistake. And why we are where we are. Besides the fact that my mood further sank (digging into wounds usually hurts), we did not become any wiser after the discussion. The persuasion of some experts that we have not gone through anything worse in the transition than other Eastern Bloc countries had little effect. Perhaps the transition in all countries that replaced socialism/communism with a ‘free’ market indeed produced its transformations, privatizations, tycoons, and plunder. Even if it did, that is neither consolation nor justification. But more than that digging into the Croatian economic abyss, I was struck by a comment from an economist I hold dear.

Recently, he presented me with a painfully accurate diagnosis: ‘we are a spent generation, our generation is just a bypass that bridges the transitional purgatory and the civilized country we will become in about 20 years. We are here to do the job, not for ourselves but for the future generation.’ And so, until recently proud to have been born in the year of Woodstock, in the year of ‘a small step for man, but a giant leap for mankind’, I have been reduced to a cleaner. I exist to bear the burden. Yes, I know, the burden is for my children. But I do not want to be spent. I want to be selfish. I want a civilized life now! Because the authorities have it even in this spent time.