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The Euro Has Yet to Resolve Greek Problems

Good economic data from the eurozone and a step forward in addressing the Greek debt crisis spurred a recovery of the euro on the global currency market last week, with its exchange rate against the dollar reaching the highest level in a month.

Last week, the dollar index, which shows the value of the U.S. dollar against six major world currencies, fell by 1.02 percent to 79.69 points, the lowest level in three weeks. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened by 1.07 percent against the European currency, causing the euro’s exchange rate to jump to 1.3766 dollars, the highest level in a month.

The euro also strengthened against the yen last week, by 1.33 percent, reaching a price of 124.70 yen. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar also strengthened, rising by 0.23 percent to 90.56 yen. The European currency was supported last week by news of further strong growth in industrial production in the eurozone. Data released on Friday showed that production in the eurozone rose by 1.7 percent month-on-month and 1.4 percent year-on-year, while in the EU27, growth was 1.8 and 1.5 percent, respectively.

“The significantly better-than-expected report on industrial production in the eurozone in January gave wings to the euro,” says Jane Foley, an analyst at Forex.com.

Support for the euro also came from Greece, where the local parliament approved a new package of stringent measures to increase taxes and reduce spending to combat the debt crisis that threatened the country and harmed the credibility of the euro in international markets. Despite a wave of protests on the streets of Athens in recent weeks, the step forward in addressing the swollen deficit of the Greek budget, which reached 13 percent of gross domestic product, has encouraged investors.

“Demand for the euro has been renewed ahead of the expected green light from the European Commission for Greece’s public debt reduction measures,” assesses Daisuke Karakama, an economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

On Monday, finance ministers from 16 eurozone countries will meet. They are expected to agree on the principles of financial assistance to Greece. According to the British newspaper “Guardian,” this involves 25 billion euros in aid. If the Greek government requests assistance for repaying debt exceeding 300 billion euros, the aid package will be approved immediately, some eurozone ministers said. However, the euro has not yet completely shaken off the pressure from Greek problems.

“The sentiment towards the euro is not particularly impressive. It is somewhat higher against the dollar than at the peak of the panic related to Greece, but we do not believe that this story is over. The issue of solvency in the medium term is still present, and pressures on the euro could continue,” analysts at ING assess. (H)