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Shipowners Remain in Focus of Investors

Today, the Zagreb Stock Exchange expects a continuation of a slightly greater focus from investors on the shipping sector due to the rise in freight rates in the global shipping market, and whether Crobex will rise or stagnate will largely depend on liquidity. Of the 10 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, six expect an increase in Crobex today, while four expect stagnation.

Last week, Crobex ended trading at 2,138 points, unchanged from the previous week. Crobex10, on the other hand, strengthened slightly by 0.28 percent, to 1,140 points. Regular trading in shares reached almost 100 million kuna, which is about 15 million more than a week earlier. "Due to the failure of the project in Montenegro, construction shares were the losers of the week, especially IGH and Tehnika. However, the shipping sector ensured that last week was not entirely bleak," emphasizes Žaran Perić, investment advisor at the brokerage firm EA Sistem. Due to the failure of the domestic construction consortium in realizing the ‘job of the century’ for the construction of a highway in Montenegro, IGH shares recorded a price drop of 13.3 percent last week, to 2,540 kuna, while Tehnika shares fell by 10.5 percent, to 1,590 kuna. Negative sentiment among investors also affected other construction issues, with only Dalekovod shares achieving a minimal price increase, related to the announcement of the construction of a shopping center in Buzin, worth almost 81 million euros.

Today, however, media reports may attract investors’ attention that the contract for the construction of that shopping center with the Austrian M2 Supernova was first signed by the company Zagorje Tehnobeton (ZTB) back in January. It appears that the investor, because ZTB did not accept additional requested obligations outside the contract after the contract was concluded, also contracted the same job with Dalekovod without regulating its relations with ZTB, so that construction company is now preparing a lawsuit. The last week’s surge in the dry bulk freight index BDI by 18.4 percent, to 3,242 points, has spurred the rise in prices of domestic shipping companies. The increase in freight rates is a result of the end of the New Year celebrations in China, after which local companies replenish their stocks from imports. In addition, negotiations between China and leading global suppliers of iron ore are also gaining momentum. It is assumed that in these negotiations, a price of 90 dollars per ton of ore could be agreed upon, which is 50 percent higher than last year, so it is logical to expect a continuation of the rise in BDI, notes Perić.

"Therefore, the shipping sector could be in focus for investors in the domestic market today. However, I expect stagnation in Crobex, primarily due to lower trading volumes, which is usual at the beginning of the week," assesses Perić. The past weekend was marked by protests from farmers demanding the payment of promised subsidies, which the government is unable to pay due to the crisis. According to the latest information, the government managed to agree with farmers that subsidies for 2009 would be paid 60 percent in cash, and the rest in the equivalent of raw materials, up to an amount of 600 kuna per hectare. The debt for subsidies from 2008, amounting to 205 million kuna, will be paid in June 2011. "From an economic perspective, subsidies and compensations will help the domestic producer of mineral fertilizers and the plant protection industry," emphasizes Perić. Meanwhile, positive news is arriving from foreign exchanges. The week on Asian exchanges began with a strong rise in stock prices, as better-than-expected employment data in the U.S. sparked hopes for a strengthening recovery of the world’s largest economy. European exchanges also started the morning with gains. "This week, the report on U.S. retail sales in February and consumer sentiment in March is eagerly awaited, which will provide new guidance for investors in foreign markets," concludes Perić. (H)