T-HT Stock in Focus of Investors

In anticipation of new news from the domestic business sector and unemployment data, today the Crobex on the Zagreb Stock Exchange could have a positive sign given the morning rise in European stock prices, with T-HT being the focus of investors ahead of tomorrow’s announcement of its business results.

Of the 10 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, five expect stagnation of the Crobex today, while four expect an increase. The Crobex index weakened by 0.25 percent last week, to 2,145 points, continuing its negative streak for the second consecutive week. The Crobex10 fell by 0.3 percent, to 1,137 points. Regular trading in shares amounted to 114 million kuna, which is about 24 million less than a week earlier. “The domestic stock index last week fluctuated from positive to negative depending on the sign of economic news, while market liquidity almost always revolves around the core of the capital market, T-HT shares. That this will remain the case this week is certainly confirmed by the fact that the announcement of the company’s business results is forthcoming, as well as the resolution of its dividend yield issues,” emphasizes Kristina Džakula, broker and investment advisor at the brokerage firm EA Sistem. The announcement of business results for the last quarter of last year and the entire previous year for T-HT is scheduled for Tuesday.

Analysts estimate that the dividend could be at the same level as in previous years, around 30 kuna, which would be about 10 percent dividend yield. However, given the expectation of somewhat lower last year’s profit, it is possible that it could be around 25-26 kuna. As some analysts in Hina’s survey point out, due to the upcoming announcement of business results, a higher than usual trading volume in T-HT shares is expected today, but not significant price movements as most investors have already positioned themselves in that stock over the past week. “Investor attention will certainly be drawn to today’s announcement of accurate statistical data on the level of unemployment in Croatia, and clarification is awaited regarding the guarantee for the construction consortium that caused a stir last week, as well as news about Agrokor’s potential positioning in the Slovenian market,” believes Džakula.

Hina’s survey shows that the shares of IGH and Tehnika could be in greater focus, with trading resuming today after it was suspended from Thursday to Friday afternoon by HANFA’s order. On global stock exchanges, although the major indices gained last week after a negative streak of four weeks, uncertainty remains due to fears of the spread of the Greek debt crisis. “That the global economic market is still largely in a severe financial crisis is confirmed by last week’s stock trading.

The attention and seriousness with which the problems of a small country like Greece are approached only confirm how fragile and uncertain the recovery of the eurozone is, and how much ‘globalization’ fully comes to the fore in problematic economic situations. That problems are not solved in a week will also be confirmed by this week’s movements in capital markets. Investor uncertainty will be tested by reactions to the presentation of measures by European Union leaders to address the emerging ‘debt crisis’, as well as the Fed’s proposal for tightening US monetary policy,” concludes Džakula. A good start to the week on European stock exchanges, where stock prices have risen significantly this morning, between 0.7 and 1.1 percent, could positively influence domestic investors, while awaiting the outcome of the Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting, which will discuss assistance to Greece in resolving its financial problems.

Today, the Croatian Employment Service is expected to announce data on the number of unemployed in January. Last week, unofficial data caused a stir, indicating that more than 17,000 workers lost their jobs in that month, and the number of unemployed reached around 309,000. If the unofficial data from the media aligns with the figures from the CES, this will represent an acceleration in the growth of unemployment, given that around 8,600 workers lost their jobs in December. This would also be a larger jump in unemployment than expected. Six macroeconomists surveyed by Hina estimated that between 8,000 and 17,000 workers lost their jobs in the first month of this year. On average, they expected an increase in the number of unemployed by 10,800. (H)