Bad news is arriving from global stock exchanges, leading to uncertain trading expected today on the Zagreb Stock Exchange – if the increased liquidity continues, it could mitigate the negative external impact as it has in recent days.
Of the 11 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, five expect stagnation of Crobex today, three expect a decline, and the same number expect an increase. After spending most of the trading session in positive territory, the Crobex index lost strength towards the end of yesterday’s trading, finishing the day down 0.11 percent at 2,196 points. Crobex10, on the other hand, managed to stay in positive territory, closing at 1,163 points, which is 0.06 percent higher. Regular trading volume amounted to 36.2 million kuna, approximately 4 million kuna less than the previous day. "Although in recent weeks the domestic market has not significantly correlated with movements on global stock exchanges, it is unlikely to resist the negative sentiment from abroad today. Increased liquidity on the domestic exchange in recent days has helped mitigate the impact from foreign exchanges, so it remains to be seen whether it will be the same today," says Maja Bešević, an analyst at the brokerage firm Abacus Brokers.
On Wall Street, stock prices fell again on Thursday, following a slight rise the day before, as disappointing forecasts for the future performance of technology companies and anemic macroeconomic data renewed concerns about the speed of recovery of the U.S. economy. This morning, stock prices on Asian exchanges also sharply declined due to yesterday’s significant drop on Wall Street, as well as investor concerns regarding budget deficits in several Eurozone countries, which caused a strong drop in the euro exchange rate. "The major global stock indices have corrected between 4 and 5 percent in the last two weeks. However, U.S. macroeconomic indicators remain positive, such as yesterday’s data on durable goods orders. Therefore, I believe this is a natural market correction after strong gains, rather than a weekly change," emphasizes Bešević. There is also no positive news from the global shipping market. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) for bulk cargo rates plummeted yesterday by five percent to 2,963 points, primarily due to a drop in the rates for cape-size vessels by more than 10 percent.
"Currently, there is a large supply of cape-size shipping on the Atlantic Ocean, which is driving down freight rates, and there is also the issue of falling steel prices in China. Nevertheless, this year, weaker demand for shipping is not expected compared to 2009; in fact, it is likely to be stronger. According to some estimates, the BDI index could average around 4,000 points this year," concludes Bešević. New guidance for investors will come from today’s announcement of the first estimate of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the last quarter of last year. It is estimated that GDP will grow by 4.6 percent year-on-year. "There are numerous positive elements present in global markets, such as the re-election of Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Fed, good business results of U.S. companies in the last quarter of last year, and last night’s address by U.S. President Barack Obama, in which he expressed readiness to continue providing government support. Despite all this, investors are cautious, and the most significant impact on yesterday’s trading was the unemployment data in the U.S. and the correction of the announced revenues of technology company Qualcomm Inc.
