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Wall Street optimistic despite rising unemployment

Disappointing labor market data did not stop the trend of rising stock prices on Wall Street, as investors concluded that the U.S. economy is indeed recovering, leading the major indices to strengthen slightly.

The Dow Jones index rose by 11 points, or 0.11 percent, to 10,618 points, while the S&P 500 index increased by 0.29 percent, to 1,144 points. The Nasdaq index jumped by 0.74 percent, to 2,317 points. For the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices, these are the highest levels in the last 15 months, and for the Nasdaq, in 16 months. The long-awaited report showed that in December of last year, 85,000 Americans were left without jobs, significantly more than the 8,000 that analysts had expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 10 percent. However, in this weak report, investors found encouragement in the revised data for November, which indicated that the number of employed increased by 4,000 that month, marking the first monthly increase in employment since the recession began two years ago.

"We should not expect the economic recovery to follow a straight upward line. The revised data for November showed an increase in employment, so I expect the revised data for December to be somewhat more positive. After all, just a year ago, we were losing 600,000 to 700,000 jobs per month," says Linda Duessel, an analyst at Federated Investors. She also points out that the recovery of the labor market usually lags behind improvements in other sectors, so yesterday’s poor data cannot undermine the belief that the economy is recovering.

"The data is disappointing, but I think we are on the right track, and employment will soon start to rise," says Peter Cardillo, an economist at Avalon Partners. Investors were also cheered by the largest U.S. postal company, United Parcel Service, which raised its earnings estimates for the last quarter of last year and announced a reduction of 1,800 employees. The price of UPS shares jumped nearly 5 percent, and the increase in the company’s estimates provided investors with a fresh boost, especially with the quarterly earnings season starting next week. However, trading volume remains very thin. Less than a billion shares changed hands on Wall Street yesterday, while last year’s daily average was 2.18 billion.

At the same time, the ratio of stocks that gained value to those that lost value was 3 to 2. Thus, 2010 started well. In the first week of the new year, the Dow Jones index rose by 1.8 percent. The S&P 500 jumped by 2.7, while the Nasdaq index rose by 2 percent. European markets also traded cautiously yesterday. The London FTSE index increased by 0.1 percent, to 5,534 points, while the Frankfurt DAX rose by 0.30 percent, to 6,037 points. The Paris CAC index, on the other hand, strengthened by 0.51 percent, to 4,045 points. (H)