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Croatia Maintains Credit Rating DB3d

Croatia’s credit rating for December remains DB3d, which classifies Croatia among countries with a mild business risk, announced the credit rating agency Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) in its monthly publication ‘International Risk and Payment Review’, as reported by the Zagreb company Bonline.

D&B predicts that, due to the credit crisis, pressure on the exchange rate, and obligations to settle debts to foreign entities, payments to foreign companies will remain a problem for Croatian businesses, especially considering their reduced profitability during the recession. They cite data indicating that at the end of the third quarter, 24.5 percent of payments from Croatian companies to foreign companies were delayed by more than 30 days from the agreed deadlines, 64.2 percent were made on time, while 9.9 percent were paid with a delay of 60 days or more, and 2.7 percent were delayed by more than 120 days.

The report cites data from the State Bureau of Statistics, according to which industrial production in September was 9.6 percent lower than in the same month last year. D&B estimates that the decline in industrial production in 2009 will be 8.7 percent, and for 2010, it predicts growth slightly below two percent, which will be aided by modest growth in private consumption. However, high unemployment and low wages will negatively impact market recovery, it adds. D&B forecasts that the population and businesses will continue to be limited in borrowing new capital due to strict banking policies.

Meanwhile, exporting companies can expect improvement given estimates that global trade will increase in 2010. D&B predicts a real increase in exports of 0.8 percent in 2010. D&B analysts cite the continuation of negotiations for Croatia’s EU accession, which resumed in October after the end of the Slovenian blockade, as a reason for optimism. They remind that Croatia has opened 28 out of 35 chapters. D&B expects that Croatia will be able to conclude negotiations by mid-2010. (H)