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Dollar Continues Downward Trajectory

After being under strong pressure for several weeks, the US dollar strengthened against the euro last week, with its value against the most important world currencies moving away from the lowest level in 15 months.

The dollar index, which shows the value of the US dollar against six major world currencies, rose last week by about 0.9 percent, to 75.606 points. A week earlier, it was at the lowest levels in the last 15 months – below 75 points. Last week, the US currency strengthened against the European one by 0.3 percent, bringing the euro exchange rate down to 1.4860 dollars.

However, the dollar weakened against the Japanese currency by 0.75 percent, bringing its price down to 88.95 yen. The European currency also weakened against the Japanese one. The price of the euro fell by 1.20 percent, to 132.10 yen. The strengthening of the dollar is primarily due to investor uncertainty regarding the further direction of stock prices on global exchanges, following weak data from the US economy. As a result, they are less inclined towards riskier assets, seeking refuge in safer investments, such as the US and Japanese currencies, as well as gold. Thanks to this, the price of gold reached its highest level in history – 1,153 dollars per ounce – by mid-week. With investors withdrawing from riskier assets, higher-yielding currencies, such as the euro and Australian dollar, have lost their appeal.

"The euro weakened because investor appetite for risk has diminished, and their sentiment has significantly worsened due to weaker-than-expected data from the US real estate market. It seems that risk aversion currently prevails in the market, which could continue," assesses Calyon analyst Mitul Kotecha. The dollar strengthened against the euro also thanks to the statement from the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, that they are closely monitoring currency exchange rate movements.

"We are carefully monitoring the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to shape our policy with the aim of protecting against risks, in line with our dual mandate of promoting employment and preserving price stability," said Bernanke. Although the pressure on the dollar eased somewhat afterward, no one is sure that the dollar exchange rate will not continue its downward trajectory, given that interest rates in the US will remain at historically low levels for some time.  (H)