The call to avoid a return to protectionism, the focus on the USA and the new administration, fear of social unrest, calls for multilateralism and unity, and the establishment of a financial system with new rules are the messages of this year’s Forum.
Written by: Vanja Figenwald
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Another World Economic Forum in Davos has concluded without shaking the world. Despite the always very good image of attendees, from prime ministers and presidents to business heavyweights and NGOs, to the poor protesters outside, as usual, the Forum did not produce conclusions that could not have been written in the summary before it began. In summary, the messages could be arranged as follows: a call to avoid a return to protectionism, a focus on the USA and the new administration, fear of social unrest if things drag on, calls for multilateralism and unity, and a call to re-establish the financial system with new rules. Some of it is a statement of the obvious, some is part of folklore, and some is an adaptation to recent events. All in all, without any direct set of measures or some revolutionary new ideas, in a word – expected.
The theme of protectionism ranked quite high this year due to the growing fear among many actors in the global economy that the crisis is leading to a significant expansion of the definition of permissible protectionism compared to happier times. Fears were further heightened by recent measures from some countries, notably the USA, which unpleasantly smell of economic closure, or the strengthening of introversion in economic behavior. Thus, we have reached an absurdity that is not really an absurdity, where the German Chancellor and the Russian Prime Minister are teaching the owner of the definition of capitalism – America – the rules of the market economy and reading lessons on the freedom of capital, services, and labor flow.
The next thing Davos revealed is the persistent focus, primarily of the West, on America and the expectation that everything will be great once they sort things out over there. This reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of historical changes and an inability to read history. Production first left America, and now money is following. Elements of global influence seem to be slowly and irreversibly leaking from American hands. Besides, it has been clear for some time that ‘some new kids’ are taking on new roles in the world order, and in Davos, one could notice the strengthening voice of developing countries, primarily China and Russia. In this sense, it is understandable that there is an increasingly strong turn towards the G20 concept, an expanded circle of the wealthiest and largest economies in the world. Suddenly, the West is very eager to cooperate, and quickly.
Interest in regulation and control
Social unrest is a sort of dark horse of the Forum, an uncomfortable truth that has not yet become a serious threat, but could easily and very quickly become a winning topic if things do not urgently improve, especially if they worsen. Protests in Davos were again part of the usual folklore this year, although on a smaller scale than usual. However, this is quite irrelevant as it was mostly about often idle and better-off salon anarchists, alter-globalists, and left-right organizations. They are disorganized and lack a unified program and voice. The real danger lies in riots within national frameworks, where there are clear structures, divisions of power, organized unions, and groups with very clear goals. This was quite clear to the distinguished guests. Add accumulated anger, director and manager bonuses, mix in direct dissatisfaction with possible job loss or poverty, and you have an explosive mass.
