Although the Hendal-Lider business optimism index increased by 0.7 percentage points in January compared to December 2008, it remains in a recession phase due to minimal growth. Entrepreneurs are increasingly negative about the business situation and the results that 2009 will bring, but it is reassuring that expectations for the next six months have increased in some sectors.
Written by: Karolina Krpeljević
The manufacturing sector shows an increase in satisfaction with the January situation and expectations for the next six months. Total industrial production in November 2008 was 3.5 percent lower compared to November 2007, but from January to November last year, it was 1.9 percent higher than production in the same period of 2007. The reasons for satisfaction may also lie in perhaps overly pessimistic and cautious forecasts by economists regarding consumption in December and January. Initial data, however, indicate that consumption was at the level of 2007, but inflation must also be considered, which gives a slightly more negative view of these results, but certainly not as bleak as some had predicted.
The tourism situation is good, expectations are bad
Such an economic outcome in 2008 also affected trade, which suddenly shifted from December’s pessimism to a class of optimists. After a significant drop in expectations for the coming months in December, January is surprisingly positive for most traders, with the expectations index rising a record 20.6 percentage points. Data from the DZS show that retail trade turnover in the first 11 months was nominally 6.8 percent higher, but real turnover was 0.1 percent lower. However, optimism is certainly not based on these results but on the calming of consumer price inflation. The prices of goods and services used for personal consumption in December compared to November 2008 were on average 0.6 percent lower, while on an annual basis, they were 2.9 percent higher.
Although all media were filled with statements from satisfied employees of travel agencies due to the large exodus of Croats to skiing, the HLIPO index in that sector is in significant decline. Most are satisfied with the business situation, but expectations have fallen by almost 50 percentage points and are at the lowest level of measurement since tracking began in May 2006. The results achieved in January cannot cover the weaker results from last year. The number of one-day trips through agencies is down 8 percent compared to the same period in 2007. The number of domestic tourists traveling for multi-day trips in the country is up 3.4 percent, while the number of overnight stays is down 1 percent compared to the same period in 2007. Abroad, 7.6 percent more tourists traveled and achieved 6.3 percent more overnight stays than in the same period of the previous year.
