The new methodology for calculating GDP by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, aligned with Eurostat, has boosted the Croatian GDP by as much as 15.8 percent! However, this is an average for the period from 1995 to 2005.
We will receive new data for 2006 and 2007 by the end of this year, and for 2008 only in 2010. However, Director Ivan Kovač states that each subsequent announcement regarding quarterly GDP growth will be corrected according to the new calculation.
The extent of this increase in certain years is illustrated by the example of the year 2000 when the GDP growth rate according to the old calculation was 2.9 percent, while according to the new calculation, GDP grew by 3.08 percent. In 2005, the difference is somewhat smaller, only 0.05 percent, but when measured in absolute terms, the increase is quite significant – GDP was thus 35.73 billion euros instead of 31.36 billion euros (almost 4.5 billion more), which translates to 8,043 euros per capita, not 7,038 euros.
The correction and alignment with EU methodology implies, among other things, the inclusion of the shadow economy in GDP, which accounts for two-thirds of the corrections during the calculated period. The remainder consists of the indirect measurement of financial intermediation services and the so-called imputed housing rent. Ivan Šutalo, Assistant Director for National Accounts, points to the trend of decreasing share of the shadow economy (which mainly involves falsely low reporting of income and expenses to avoid tax payments), which is why the differences between the old and new GDP calculations are decreasing over the years. (Gordana Gelenčer)
