Experts Propose a Day Without ‘Email’

And when the average consumer expects the telecommunications market to continue introducing new technologies and strengthening the existing offerings, a surprise follows.

Namely, a study by the consulting firm Deloitte on trends in the telecommunications sector in 2009 showed that service providers will have to take the profitability of new projects more seriously, revise existing offerings, and invest significant funds in developing existing infrastructure. However, let’s start from the beginning. According to Deloitte’s report, due to the crisis, smartphone sales will weaken for a very simple reason – prices. After Apple made a real revolution with its iPhone in 2008, other mobile phone manufacturers began to follow it in hopes of figuring out how to successfully compete with it.

However, as citizens tighten their belts, they also approach the decision to purchase any type of smartphone, which is multiple times more expensive than an average and completely ordinary mobile phone, more rationally. Furthermore, an interesting trend is observed in digital communication, which, due to tremendous progress, has overwhelmed consumers with information and drastically reduced business efficiency.
In 2009, therefore, employers will ponder how to cut digital communication while ensuring that employees receive all necessary information. One of the suggestions offered by Deloitte is that they should be given the option to spend part of their working hours ‘offline’ or even organize a day without ’emailing’.  

And while digital communication loses its message, mobile broadband services will slow their growth in 2009.  In 2008, such services were among the fastest-growing, but their success depended on the support of advertisers and, of course, penetration among consumers. However, as advertisers will direct their investments in 2009 towards classic, proven media, and consumers will buy fewer mobile phones that support these services, Deloitte estimates that the rate of discontinuation of existing services will be five times higher than the rate of introduction of new ones, while the total number of mobile TV viewers could fall below 30 million.

Mobile phone manufacturers will have to be craftier when it comes to convergence, or the unification of two or more technologies into one product. Simply put, consumers have remained completely indifferent to mobile phones that simultaneously serve as mp3 players, cameras, or gaming consoles, as one device simply cannot perform all those tasks with sufficient quality. Thus, instead of selling three-in-one mobile phones, manufacturers will have to focus on one of the performances, refine it, and offer it to the market.

Deloitte’s report states that sales of mobile phones with built-in cameras could surpass sales of digital cameras, while the use of mp3 functions could rise above 60 percent. When it comes to fixed telephony, analysts predict that operators will have to unite in building an optical network. Namely, market liberalization also means offering a choice between competing networks, and this model could, they say at Deloitte, become the subject of heated debates, as operators are under pressure to replace copper wires with optical ones. This, in turn, requires significant investments (around a thousand dollars per household), which is why it is not surprising that it is more profitable for telecoms to build a shared network and share it under the watchful eye of regulators.

During the presentation of trends, there was also talk about the state of the market, or the positions of companies in the crisis of 2009. For now, analysts say, the telecommunications sector will not be strongly affected by the crisis, and instead of a decline, it could experience slight growth or stagnation. This year is also an opportunity for consolidation in the market, as some operators have suffered from falling stock values, making them potential targets for acquisition by stronger players. (Sandra Babić)