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Return of pessimism on ZSE?

At the Zagreb Stock Exchange, most analysts expect a continuation of falling stock prices today, due to new bad news from the global economy, as well as weak trading on the domestic market.

Of the eight analysts who participated in Hina’s survey, four expect a continuation of the decline of Crobex today, three expect its stagnation, and one expects an increase. The Crobex index fell by 4.54 percent yesterday, to 1,744 points. Regular trading in shares amounted to 30.56 million kuna."Investors are returning to reality. The rise in stock prices since the beginning of the year on the domestic market was achieved on low trading volumes and with questionable justification, given the current economic situation and the gas crisis. I am not optimistic about today’s sentiment either," assesses Zvonimir Marić, a member of the Management Board of K.D. Asset Management. He adds that there is no good news coming from global exchanges either – there are more and more signs that the recession in the most developed economies is deepening.

Leading indices on Wall Street fell by about 3 percent on Wednesday, plunging to their lowest level in six weeks, due to the latest data showing a 2.7 percent drop in consumption in the US last December, and investors are also fearing further bank losses. Stock prices on Asian exchanges also fell sharply this morning due to investors’ fears of new bank losses and a deepening recession in the economies of the US, Japan, and Germany. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index fell by 4.9 percent this morning, to its lowest level in a month.

"The rise in stock prices on the domestic market at the beginning of the year was mainly based on the activities of speculators. Crobex could return to the levels of the beginning of the year in the next period, and possibly even lower, as there is currently no activity from large investors," believes Marić. Marić also expects a continuation of low trading volumes. And with low trading volumes, as he points out, it is difficult to achieve sustainable price growth."In a market with such low trading volumes as recorded by the Zagreb Stock Exchange, it is very easy for the stock index to rise or fall by 10 percent in a short period. Therefore, I recommend caution," concludes Marić for Hina’s financial service.