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The Biggest Risks in 2009

The deteriorating state of public finances, the slowdown of Chinese economic growth, and the threat posed by climate change to food and health security are some of the biggest risks facing today’s world, the World Economic Forum (WEF) announced on Tuesday.

Legislators and business leaders must confront the ongoing heightened risks but must also ensure they do not worsen the situation in the long term, WEF further emphasized in its report “Global Risks 2009,” published ahead of the annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland from January 28 to February 1. “Economic forecasts for 2009 are pessimistic for most economies. Markets remain volatile, liquidity has not returned, unemployment is rising, and consumer spending and business confidence have fallen to record low levels,” the report states. “In such a climate, the impact of risks is even stronger, and the tendency towards panic and short-term reactions is more pronounced.”

The report lists 36 risks threatening the world, divided into five categories – economic, geopolitical, environmental, social, and technological. For example, WEF notes in the first category the danger that a slowdown in the U.S. could pressure the Chinese economy to a 6% annual growth rate, far below the official target level of eight percent. This could significantly harm the already severely wounded global economy due to the country’s role as a leading manufacturer and its status as a massive net creditor to other economies.

The report further warns that, despite significant losses already affecting investors and financial markets, there is still ample room this year for declines in asset prices, such as stocks, real estate, and corporate bonds. The world is also facing heightened environmental risks, including those related to climate change, WEF says. A new risk has been included in the list, termed inadequate global governance, arising from different approaches to global governance, namely, uncoordinated government responses to global issues. “The absence or lack of effective and comprehensive governance in global issues such as financial stability, trade, climate change, water, and security in themselves represent a source of risk,” WEF emphasizes. “Poor global governance holds a central position among geopolitical, economic, and environmental risks,” the organization warns.  (H)