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Investor’s Perspective Focused on T-HT and the Construction and Shipping Sector

Initially dormant and calm, trading on the Zagreb Stock Exchange intensified by the end of last week, with the Crobex index rising sharply, and the focus of investors was primarily on T-HT shares.

The Crobex strengthened during this period by 6.33 percent, reaching 1,831 points, surpassing the psychologically significant threshold of 1,800 points for the first time since November 19 last year. Regular trading volume amounted to 128.3 million kuna, with most of it realized on Friday – 48.3 million kuna.

"During the next week, we expect to maintain relatively low trading volumes, with the focus of investors continuing to be on the most liquid issues, such as T-HT, as well as shares from the construction and shipping sectors," says Goran Nimac, an analyst in the Economic Research Department of Hypo Alpe Adria Group. In terms of liquidity and price increase last week, T-HT shares stand out. They recorded a turnover of 37.2 million kuna, and their price rose by 9.43 percent to 218 kuna.

As analysts point out, the trigger for increased trading in this stock was the news about the postponement of the privatization of HT Mostar. Namely, the investment public has been discussing the need to restructure T-HT’s balance sheet for some time, with the possible application of three models – the payment of an extraordinary dividend, the purchase of treasury shares, or a new acquisition. Excluding, at least for now, the acquisition of HT-Mostar, two possible ways remain to resolve the enormous cash position of that company, both of which positively affect the price of T-HT shares. The shares of Atlantska plovidba achieved nearly 25 million kuna in turnover, and their price jumped nearly 14 percent to 785 kuna.

The entire shipping sector recorded a double-digit price increase, thanks to a slight recovery in demand for shipping coal and iron ore worldwide, which influenced the jump in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The week concluded at 872 points. The shares of Jadroplov thus increased by 15.29 percent, Tankerska plovidba by 12.88 percent, and Uljanik Plovidba by 11.3 percent.

The shares of Dalekovod were also in focus last week, with a turnover of 10.78 million kuna and a price increase of 8.66 percent to 415 kuna. "This company recently applied for a tender for two projects in Ukraine, and soon the names of the companies that will enter the second round of competition will be known. Dalekovod’s interest in entering that market is not surprising, given that the country is facing significant investments in the reconstruction of road, railway, and energy infrastructure due to the upcoming European Football Championship in 2012 in Ukraine and Poland," emphasizes Nimac. For this competition, Ukraine will need to build about 2,000 kilometers of highways, while investments in energy infrastructure are estimated at around 20 billion dollars by 2018, adds Nimac. "On the domestic market, however, the postponement or slowdown of investments in certain infrastructure projects, such as road construction, could create pressure on Dalekovod’s operating margins in 2009," notes Nimac. (H)

* Employees of the Economic Research Department of HAAB and their family members have an ownership interest in Dalekovod shares.