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Bad news dampens the mood of domestic investors

After three consecutive trading days of growth for Crobex, most analysts today expect its decline on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, primarily due to new bad news from the domestic and global economy.

Of the eight analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, six expect a decline in Crobex today, while one expects stagnation and another an increase. The Crobex index rose by 0.41 percent yesterday, reaching 1,779 points, and during the day exceeded, for the first time since mid-November last year, the level of 1,800 points. Regular trading volume was below 28 million kuna. "I expect again low liquidity today, and with such low trading volumes, both declines and increases in stock prices are possible. However, we are currently receiving a lot of bad news from the country and global exchanges," says Zvonimir Marić, a member of the Management Board of K.D. Asset Management.

The Croatian government declared a crisis in natural gas supply yesterday due to the interruption of Russian supplies through Ukraine. It prescribed the order and pace at which supplies to large consumers directly connected to the transport and distribution system are reduced or suspended, in order to ensure supply for protected customers such as households, hospitals, schools, and kindergartens. "The gas crisis could negatively impact investor sentiment, as the suspension or reduction of activities in companies may affect the slowdown of economic activities and the poorer filling of the state budget," assesses Marić.

All of this, he adds, could increase illiquidity in the country. If companies, due to a decline in business activities and profits, lay off workers in larger numbers, as is now being announced from the retail sector, consumer confidence and consumption will also decline, believes Marić. "Economists are already estimating a decline in economic activities in Croatia this year. All of this creates a bitter taste in the mouths of investors," emphasizes Marić.

Bad news also prevailed on global exchanges. Data on a sharp rise in unemployment and warnings from companies about worsening business conditions triggered the largest daily drop in stock prices on Wall Street in the last month on Wednesday. Leading U.S. stock indices fell by about three percent. Stock prices sharply fell this morning on Asian exchanges, with indices in Tokyo and Hong Kong dropping more than 3 percent. On the Zagreb Stock Exchange, Marić expects quite low trading volumes until the end of this week, as many investors are still absent from the market.  (H)