Home / Media and Publications / Growth Expected on the ZSE

Growth Expected on the ZSE

On the Zagreb Stock Exchange, most analysts expect a rise in stock prices today, primarily due to positive movements in global markets. Analysts do not foresee a significant drop in prices.

Of the eight analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey, five expect an increase in the Crobex today, two expect stagnation, and one expects a decline. The Crobex index fell by 4.21 percent last week, to 1,540 points. The regular turnover in shares was only 157.32 million kuna. "Although the Crobex ended last week with a decline of 4.21 percent, we witnessed its resistance at 1,500 points, which should somewhat indicate a calming of the situation. Therefore, I do not expect significant drops in stock prices this week. However, on Friday, the record for low turnover was broken again. Since we cannot expect a rise in prices without greater liquidity on the stock exchange, I expect stagnation of the Crobex today," says Žaran Perić, investment advisor at the Karlovac brokerage firm EA sistem.

The drop in American stock indices last week of more than 2 percent could have been significantly larger, notes Perić, given the confirmation that the American economy has entered a recession and the data that more than half a million Americans lost their jobs in November, and nearly two million since the beginning of the year. For comparison, last year, 1.3 million Americans were unemployed. "Investor hopes in global markets are bolstered by news of aid to the American automotive sector and a preliminary agreement reached over the weekend between the White House and Democrats in Congress regarding emergency assistance for the Detroit trio, amounting to between 15 and 17 billion dollars," explains Perić.

Asian stock prices rose sharply this morning, primarily due to new stimulus packages in the US, China, and India, while news of US government assistance to General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler positively impacted the Asian automotive industry. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index jumped 5.2 percent today, while the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks, excluding Japan, rose 4.3 percent. European markets also started the week with a strong rise in stock prices.

Regarding the Croatian economy, Perić believes that investors might be concerned by the information from the government that planned budget revenues for 2009 will amount to 124.6 billion kuna, while expenditures will be as high as 128.9 billion kuna, indicating a deficit greater than 4 billion kuna. "This fact will certainly not contribute to improvement, and the Croatian National Bank has also warned that such a budget could further deepen the economic crisis in Croatia," says Perić. Among other things, the government predicts that next year economic growth will be 2 percent, and inflation will slow to 3.5 percent. Hina’s survey shows that the focus of investors is expected to continue primarily on the T-HT stock, as well as the construction and shipping sectors. As for macroeconomic indicators, analysts expect the release of data on producer prices in Croatia for November, as well as data on industrial production in October in one of Croatia’s most significant export markets – Germany. (H)