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Ideal Conditions for Positioning and Acquisition

Today at the Zagreb Stock Exchange, most analysts expect the continuation of Crobex’s growth after its modest gain of 0.99 percent on Friday, influenced by positive signals from European and Asian markets.

Of the eight analysts who participated in Hina’s survey, six expect an increase in Crobex today, while one expects a decline and another stagnation. The Crobex index plummeted last week by 16.17 percent, to 1,714 points. During the week, it fell to 1,696 points, the lowest level since January 2005. The regular turnover of shares amounted to 250.7 million kuna, almost 50 percent higher than in the previous week. "The drop in Crobex last week of more than 16 percent, along with somewhat higher liquidity, indicates that uncertainty continues to provoke panic reactions from investors to the announcement of any negative news or even just a hint of such news," emphasizes Kristina Džakula, an investment advisor at the Karlovac brokerage firm EA Sistem.

She adds that there have been buying-side games on the stock exchange in recent days. Namely, as she points out, buyers in the first minutes of trading sense how the market will react to global news, with the common practice being that the day usually starts with panic sell-offs, followed by stagnation until the end of trading. "Buyers are cautious due to uncertainty, but also hopeful that panickers will continue to reduce their portfolios. While some investors are abandoning stocks and retreating to safety, others are accumulating and restructuring their investment portfolios. In any case, the conditions are ideal for positioning and acquisition within the shareholder structure, as evidenced by numerous takeover offers," says Džakula.

This morning, Asian markets were nervous mainly due to investors’ concerns regarding the American financial sector, but the news that the government will assist Citigroup somewhat calmed the market. After it was announced that U.S. authorities would help the second-largest American bank by assets, leading indices on the stock exchanges in Australia and India rose, while those in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan reduced previous losses. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks, excluding Japan, slightly increased this morning.

U.S. futures indices currently indicate that stock prices could rise today on Wall Street, and an increase in European stock indices is also expected. The European markets could be positively influenced today by a plan of measures to stimulate the British economy that will be presented by Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Finance Minister Alistair Darling. It is said that these measures, worth $30 billion, include a temporary tax reduction and encouragement of public spending.

"I hope that during the day the domestic market will manage to find connections with global markets. If global markets achieved strong gains on Friday based on the news that the new U.S. Treasury Secretary will be Timothy Geithner, then we could rise today on, for example, the news that our Finance Minister Ivan Šuker managed to cut the budget by approximately 15 billion kuna," Džakula conveys. She concludes that market participants are still waiting for the resolution of the situation in the global economy and positive vibrations from major players on the stock exchange. (H)