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Eurozone and the USA in Recession

The Eurozone and the United States have entered an economic recession that is expected to be prolonged and likely severe, warns the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its preliminary estimates on Thursday.

"Economic activity in the USA is expected to decrease by 0.9 percent next year, in the Eurozone by 0.5 percent, and in Japan by 0.1 percent, as OECD countries have entered a period of prolonged slowdown," states the OECD report. According to the organization's estimates, in the third quarter of this year, the USA and the Eurozone entered a period of four consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates. Consequently, these two economies, along with Japan, will experience a decline in activity in 2009.

The American economy will shrink by 0.9 percent next year, the GDP of the Eurozone will decline by 0.5 percent, and activity in the Japanese economy will decrease by 0.1 percent, further states the report. In 2009, it is expected that the GDP of all 30 OECD member countries will, on average, decrease by about 0.3 percent, according to preliminary estimates. "A gradual recovery is expected to begin in the second half of next year, but economic growth will not approach normal levels before the second half of 2010," said Jorgen Elmeskov, the OECD's Director of Economic Research, during the presentation of the report in Paris.

Meanwhile, Elmeskov emphasized that unemployment will significantly rise. For the USA, the unemployment rate is projected to increase to as high as 7.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010, compared to 5.7 percent this year. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone will simultaneously strengthen from 7.4 percent to as much as 9.1 percent in 2010. In Japan, the unemployment rate will exceed 4.4 percent, further states the OECD. The OECD also warns of risks, primarily those aimed at reducing activity.

"These risks, among others, include a longer time than previously assumed for the normalization of conditions in the financial environment, further collapses of financial institutions, and stronger blows to developing countries due to weakening trade, as well as risks of reassessment that foreign investors may resort to." The OECD pointed to the possibility of the need for further measures to stabilize the situation in financial markets. "In that case, aligning efforts at the international level would be desirable to avoid measures that could disrupt fair market competition or create problems for other countries," the report further states. (H)