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Zagreb Stock Exchange: Crobex Below 3,000 Points, Focus on Global Events

The correction of stock prices continued on the Zagreb Stock Exchange last week, primarily influenced by instability in global markets and investors’ fears of a recession in the U.S.

Crobex weakened by 4.3 percent last week, dropping below the psychological barrier of 3,000 points, to 2,967 points. Regular trading in shares reached 377.3 million kuna.

‘Next week, the focus of investors is expected to be mainly on the usually most liquid issues’

“Next week, the focus of investors is expected to be mainly on the usually most liquid issues and on the development of the situation in global financial markets,” assesses Goran Nimac, an analyst in the Economic Research Department of Hypo Alpe Adria Group (HAAB).

After two weeks of heated discussions, the House of Representatives of Congress approved the bank bailout bill on Friday, thus approving $700 billion from the budget for the purchase of bad mortgage loans from financial institutions. However, leading indices on Wall Street continued to post losses, as investors fear that this will not be enough to stimulate lending in the interbank market and prevent a recession. Increasingly, a wave of bad data signaling a recession in the U.S. economy is worrying investors in global capital markets. In such conditions, the domestic market is largely influenced by events in global exchanges.

Last week, the stock of INA led in trading volume, with 50.5 million kuna.

Last week, the stock of INA led in trading volume, with 50.5 million kuna. Its price fell by 4.78 percent, to 2,649 kuna, and during the week, it was traded at 2,404 kuna. On Friday, the public offer from MOL for the purchase of INA shares, which pertains to 30.16 percent of the shares, expired. In recent days, there has been a significant response from small investors. According to the latest data from the Central Depository Agency, 2.04 million INA shares have been deposited with the agency so far, and final data will be published in the middle of next week. Analysts emphasize that the further movement of INA’s stock price will largely depend on market sentiment.

Significant trading was also recorded last week with the stock of Atlantska Plovidba, which achieved a turnover of 46.8 million kuna. Its price fell by 3.79 percent, to 1,851 kuna. Approximately the same turnover was achieved with the stock of T-HT, and its price fell by 3.69 percent, to 253 kuna. As analysts point out, this stock could soon come under pressure due to the upcoming distribution of bonus shares to those investors who did not sell their shares within a year of the IPO. Media reports that T-HT could lay off approximately 269 employees this year as part of a cost optimization process. Cutting personnel costs is crucial for this company in its efforts to become more efficient in times of rising costs of attracting and retaining customers, analysts from HAAB emphasize.

A slightly higher turnover was also recorded last week with the stock of Podravka, nearly 20 million kuna.

A slightly higher turnover was also recorded last week with the stock of Podravka, nearly 20 million kuna. Its price fell by 0.62 percent, to 335.89 kuna, despite the fact that the company reported on Friday that it has become the owner of the brands Čoko and Čokolešnik based on a sales agreement signed with Droga Kolinska.

“At current price levels, this stock is trading at a discount compared to the average revenue (P/S) multiplier of the group of related companies for 2008 of 1 time and also in relation to the average EV/EBITDA multiplier of the group of related companies for 2008 of 10.1 times,” says Nimac.

Last week, the stock of the Institute of Construction of Croatia (IGH) was also in greater focus for investors, achieving a turnover of 25.8 million kuna. The week ended with a price of 8,350 kuna, which is 0.81 percent lower than the previous week.

‘IGH announced that it has received a 45 million kuna contract for the design and supervision of the rehabilitation of the water supply and sewage system of Zagreb.’

“The stock of IGH attracted greater investor attention after the news that the company won an international architectural competition for the construction of a new passenger terminal at Zagreb Airport. In addition, the company announced that it has received a 45 million kuna contract for the design and supervision of the rehabilitation of the water supply and sewage system of Zagreb until 2011,” emphasizes Nimac.

Analysts expect that next week, the focus of investors will mainly be on the most liquid issues, which seem to be the safest investment in unstable times on the exchanges. (Hina)