Both Democrats and Republicans Against Obama

Deeply rooted racial distrust could cost Barack Obama entry into the White House if the elections are tight, according to results of an AP-Yahoo News poll released on Saturday, which showed that one third of white Democrats view blacks negatively, with many labeling them as “lazy,” “violent,” and responsible for their own difficulties.

The survey, conducted by Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who might turn away from Obama because of his race could easily exceed the final margin between presidential candidates in the 2004 election – two and a half percent. There are also obstacles for Republican John McCain: he is an ally of unpopular President George W. Bush and at 72 years old would be the oldest president of the United States in his first term. However, Obama faces the following: 40 percent of all white Americans have at least a partially negative view of blacks, including many Democrats and independents.

More than a third of all white Democrats and independent voters, without whom Obama cannot win the White House, agree with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the research, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who do not share those views. These data add a dose of harsh reality to the historic campaign of the first black presidential candidate of one of the two major American parties. “There are far fewer bigoted people than there were 50 years ago, but that does not mean that there are only a few bigots,” noted Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman in his analysis of the survey. The pollsters wanted to determine why Obama is in a tied race with McCain, even though the political landscape seems distinctly in favor of the Democrats, a question posed by many political analysts. The unpopularity of Republican President Bush, the war in Iraq, and the poor economic situation work against the Republican candidate, as does the fact that there are about 15 percent more registered Democratic voters than Republican ones.

The results showed that Obama’s problems lie at home – among his Democrats, especially white non-Hispanics. Only seven out of 10 Democrats support Obama, compared to 85 percent of Republicans who support McCain. Many Republicans have racial prejudices as well, but the survey showed that their unwillingness to vote for Obama is not due to his race. The majority of Republicans would not vote for any Democrat for president – white, black, or brown. The survey also showed that most whites speak well of blacks, and that many of those who speak poorly want to vote for Obama. On the other side of the questions about racial preferences and prejudices, the senator from Illinois enjoys nearly unanimous support from black voters, the survey showed. Race is not the main factor deterring Democrats and independents from Obama. The survey indicates that doubts about his competence and ability to implement desired changes deter more than a quarter of Democrats, and they are likely to vote against him for that reason.

The effect of white racial attitudes is evident in the survey. A statistical model derived from the survey suggests that Obama would have up to 6 percent more votes if there were no white racial prejudices. The AP-Yahoo News survey used a unique method from the California company Knowledge Networks, which interviews respondents online rather than by phone, as it has been shown that people are more willing to talk about uncomfortable things or express unpopular views in this manner than in conversation with a stranger. Choosing between more positive and negative adjectives that can describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites opted for the word “violent,” 22 percent for “boastful,” 29 percent “complaining,” 13 percent “lazy,” and 11 percent “irresponsible.”

Among Democrats, one third chose negative adjectives, and of those, 58 percent plan to vote for Obama. The survey showed racial prejudices among independent voters as well, with more than 30 percent describing blacks as “complaining,” and 24 percent as “violent.” About 40 percent of independent voters believe that blacks should “try harder.” The survey was conducted from August 27 to September 5 on a sample of 2,227 adults with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percent. (Hina)