Analysts: If no other bidder enters, Mol will not make a higher offer

On the Zagreb Stock Exchange, analysts today expect calm trading, price stagnation, and a focus on the usually more liquid issues, while awaiting further reactions from investors and funds to Mol’s takeover offer for Ina.

All 9 analysts from brokerage firms who participated in Hina’s survey expect stagnation of the Crobex today. The Crobex index weakened slightly by 0.02 percent yesterday, to 3,494 points. The regular turnover of shares amounted to a meager 22.7 million kuna."I still expect stagnation on the stock exchange. If no other potential bidder enters the competition for the takeover of Ina, I do not expect a quick recovery on the stock exchange, especially due to the current macroeconomic situation in Croatia," says Saša Vakula, investment advisor at Argus Securities.

He points to a dangerous combination of the strengthening kuna exchange rate and high inflation, which prompts investors to be cautious. Following yesterday’s announcement of Mol’s public offer for the acquisition of the domestic oil company, the price of Ina’s shares strengthened slightly by 0.11 percent, to 2,790 kuna. This resulted in a turnover of only 6.2 million kuna. Vakula interprets the lukewarm reaction of investors as a result of Mol’s offered price of 2,800 kuna per share, which is close to the current market price.

"If no other potentially interested bidder enters, one should not expect Mol to revise its offer upwards," Vakula believes. Namely, as he points out, Mol primarily aims for a 19.85 percent ownership stake of the state in Ina. With already 25 percent that it holds in the domestic oil company, the Hungarian company could very easily reach over 50 percent stake in Ina, as it is expected that some small investors will accept the price of 2,800 kuna. Small investors and the defenders’ fund hold 31 percent of Ina’s shares.

Analysts in Hina’s survey indicate that, alongside Ina, the greatest interest from investors is expected for the most liquid stocks – T-HT, certain shipping and construction companies. The stock of Dioki could also be in greater focus, due to market participants’ expectations that a decision will soon be made regarding the location of the LNG terminal construction, with the location in Omišalj, owned by that company, considered the most likely. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 1.73 percent yesterday, to 6,691 points.  (H)